It seems that whenever a subject comes up nowadays, someone has an “expert” to back up their claims. News stories feature expert contributors. Courts rely on “expert” witnesses. Politicians consult “experts.” So, what they tell us must be right… right? Well… maybe not so much.
First, how are we to determine who is actually an expert? Most dictionaries define an expert as “one who has training, knowledge, or experience in a particular area or subject.” Really? So, if I’ve taken a few courses in psychology, does that make me an expert in social sciences? Or, if I served one enlistment in the U.S. Marine Corps, does that make me an expert in combat tactics? According to the definition, it does. But in the real world… I think not.
Typically, when we see, hear, or read something from an expert, we know little about them other than someone claims they are an expert. For example, “John Smith, an instructor at the Shangri-La Institute of Technology, supports the evidence of global warming.” OK, we now know that Mr. Smith teaches somewhere (or maybe works at a diploma mill). But where is this Shangri-La Institute? We don’t even know what he teaches. For all we know, he could be teaching knitting. And what has he done other than teach? Teaching a subject does not necessarily indicate proficiency in it. We all remember teachers who were less than enlightening from our school days. Many teachers don’t even teach subjects they majored or minored in. So, what does this mean?
Absolutely nothing! Every day, we are bombarded with “expert” messages from people who may not know as much about a particular subject as we do. Taking classes in a subject doesn’t indicate you have any particular talent for it. Politics, in particular, extensively uses expert “credentials” to achieve their goals. No matter what you’re trying to convince someone of, with enough money and enticements, you can find an “expert” to back you up. In fact, some “experts” make a living simply by being “expert” witnesses in court, without ever having accomplished much else in life. Here’s another example: Anyone can write and publish a book nowadays. The subject doesn’t matter. You can conduct research and simply rewrite what others have done before you. But once you publish a book, you are perceived as an “expert” on the subject.
Studies have been conducted to test the accuracy of “expert” predictions. In all of them, the conclusions were that predictions made by experts were little better than random choice and much less accurate than predictions based on statistical models. In fact, experts scored better when making predictions outside their areas of expertise.
How can this be? These individuals are supposed to be educated, trained, and experienced in their fields. Most of us have heard the old saying, “You can’t see the forest for the trees.” It seems this may be more true than we ever imagined. According to the studies, experts can become so wrapped up in their fields that they are unable to relate to things outside of it. Anything they see, hear, or read about becomes a tree, no matter if it’s a telephone pole, a pillar, or a monolith. In other words, an eminent psychiatrist like Sigmund Freud would likely view a misbehaving child as having some sort of mental aberration rather than just being difficult.
Think About All the Times Experts Have Been Wrong:
- In 1929, just days before the stock market crash that caused the Great Depression, economists claimed the stock market would set new record highs in the coming days.
- Eddie Bond told Elvis Presley, after turning him down for a spot in his band, “Stick to driving a truck, because you’ll never make it as a singer.”
- Dick Rowe of Decca Records turned down the Beatles in 1962, stating, “We don’t like your sound. Groups with guitars are on the way out.”
- In 1941, military experts from the U.S. Army, U.S. Navy, and the White House missed all the warning signs of the attack on Pearl Harbor.
- Ben Bernanke, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, shortly before the real estate crash, said, “A moderate cooling in the housing market, should one occur, would not be inconsistent with the economy continuing to grow at or near its potential next year.”
- The George W. Bush Administration ignored repeated warnings of an imminent terrorist attack before 9/11/2001.
- My favorite: The Chicago Tribune headline on the day after the 1948 Presidential Election read, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”
…and many, many more.
So, how can we assess the validity of information offered by experts? Here are a few things we can do:
- Check the expert’s credentials and track record. If someone you’ve never heard of claims something about global warming and they’ve only taught economics at a little-known community college, take it with a grain of salt.
- Verify the expert’s position with other trusted independent sources.
- Find out who paid the expert. If they claim that electric cars cannot be made practical and are funded by oil companies…
- Investigate whether the expert has an agenda or is trying to make a name for themselves.
- Lastly, see if the expert stands to gain personally from their position.
In the end, it may just come down to your own good judgment. My best advice is to believe about half of what you hear and trust no one at face value. Do your own research and draw your own conclusions. According to studies, your position is probably just as accurate as theirs—at least by a 50% margin.